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Individual dynamics and local heterogeneity provide a microscopic view of the epidemic spreading |
| Youyuan Zhu(朱友源)1,2, Ruizhe Shen(沈瑞哲)1,2, Hao Dong(董昊)1,3,4,†, and Wei Wang(王炜)2,3,‡ |
1 Kuang Yaming Honors School, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China;
2 Collaborative Innovation Center of Advanced Microstructures, National Laboratory of Solid State Microstructure, School of Physics, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
3 Institute for Brain Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China;
4 State Key Laboratory of Analytical Chemistry for Life Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China |
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Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe global disasters, highlighting the importance of understanding the details and trends of epidemic transmission in order to introduce efficient intervention measures. While the widely used deterministic compartmental models have qualitatively presented continuous "analytical" insight and captured some transmission features, their treatment usually lacks spatiotemporal variation. Here, we propose a stochastic individual dynamical (SID) model to mimic the random and heterogeneous nature of epidemic propagation. The SID model provides a unifying framework for representing the spatiotemporal variations of epidemic development by tracking the movements of each individual. Using this model, we reproduce the infection curves for COVID-19 cases in different areas globally and find the local dynamics and heterogeneity at the individual level that affect the disease outbreak. The macroscopic trend of virus spreading is clearly illustrated from the microscopic perspective, enabling a quantitative assessment of different interventions. Seemingly, this model is also applicable to studying stochastic processes at the ``meter scale", e.g., human society's collective dynamics.
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Received: 01 November 2023
Revised: 07 December 2023
Accepted manuscript online: 04 January 2024
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PACS:
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83.10.Mj
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(Molecular dynamics, Brownian dynamics)
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89.75.-k
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(Complex systems)
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87.23.Ge
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(Dynamics of social systems)
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| Fund: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 22273034) and the Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling of Nanjing University. |
Corresponding Authors:
Hao Dong, Wei Wan
E-mail: donghao@nju.edu.cn;wangwei@nju.edu.cn
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Cite this article:
Youyuan Zhu(朱友源), Ruizhe Shen(沈瑞哲), Hao Dong(董昊), and Wei Wang(王炜) Individual dynamics and local heterogeneity provide a microscopic view of the epidemic spreading 2024 Chin. Phys. B 33 058301
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