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Chin. Phys. B, 2013, Vol. 22(12): 129202    DOI: 10.1088/1674-1056/22/12/129202
GEOPHYSICS, ASTRONOMY, AND ASTROPHYSICS Prev   Next  

Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011

Wang Kuo (王阔)a, Feng Guo-Lin (封国林)b, Zeng Yu-Xing (曾宇星)a, Wang Xu-Jia (汪栩加)a
a College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
b Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract  In this paper we try to extract stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, similarity coefficient, and some other methods based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis daily data. The comparisons of the coefficient of variance of climatological background field and truth data in winter between 2010 and 2011 are made. The method of extracting stable components and climatological background field can be helpful to increase forecasting skill. The forecasting skill improvement of air temperature is better than geopotential height at 500 hPa. Moreover, this method improves the predictability better in the Pacific Ocean. In China, the forecast in winter in Northeast China is more uncertain than in the other parts.
Keywords:  stable components      climatological background      coefficient of variance  
Received:  29 March 2013      Revised:  10 May 2013      Accepted manuscript online: 
PACS:  92.60.Wc (Weather analysis and prediction)  
Fund: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430204), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40930952 and 41105070), and the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902).
Corresponding Authors:  Feng Guo-Lin     E-mail:  fenggl@cma.gov.cn

Cite this article: 

Wang Kuo (王阔), Feng Guo-Lin (封国林), Zeng Yu-Xing (曾宇星), Wang Xu-Jia (汪栩加) Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 129202

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