GEOPHYSICS, ASTRONOMY, AND ASTROPHYSICS |
Prev
Next
|
|
|
Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011 |
Wang Kuo (王阔)a, Feng Guo-Lin (封国林)b, Zeng Yu-Xing (曾宇星)a, Wang Xu-Jia (汪栩加)a |
a College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; b Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China |
|
|
Abstract In this paper we try to extract stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, similarity coefficient, and some other methods based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis daily data. The comparisons of the coefficient of variance of climatological background field and truth data in winter between 2010 and 2011 are made. The method of extracting stable components and climatological background field can be helpful to increase forecasting skill. The forecasting skill improvement of air temperature is better than geopotential height at 500 hPa. Moreover, this method improves the predictability better in the Pacific Ocean. In China, the forecast in winter in Northeast China is more uncertain than in the other parts.
|
Received: 29 March 2013
Revised: 10 May 2013
Accepted manuscript online:
|
PACS:
|
92.60.Wc
|
(Weather analysis and prediction)
|
|
Fund: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430204), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40930952 and 41105070), and the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902). |
Corresponding Authors:
Feng Guo-Lin
E-mail: fenggl@cma.gov.cn
|
Cite this article:
Wang Kuo (王阔), Feng Guo-Lin (封国林), Zeng Yu-Xing (曾宇星), Wang Xu-Jia (汪栩加) Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 129202
|
[1] |
Lorenz E N 1965 Tellus 17 321
|
[2] |
Lorenz E N 1969 J. Atmos. Sci. 26 636
|
[3] |
Xie T, Zou G H, William P, Kuang H L and Chen W 2010 Chin. Phys. B 19 059201
|
[4] |
Jiang H, Yang X X, Lin M M, Shi Y R and Duan W S 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 019401
|
[5] |
Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H and Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin. 50 606 (in Chinese)
|
[6] |
Zhang Z S, Gong Z Q, Zhi R, Feng G L and Hu J G 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 019201
|
[7] |
Shukla J 1981 J. Atmos. Sci. 38 2547
|
[8] |
Shukla J 1998 Science 282 728
|
[9] |
Madden R A and Julian P R 1971 J. Atmos. Sci. 28 702
|
[10] |
Madden R A and Julian P R 1972 J. Atmos. Sci. 29 1109
|
[11] |
Wang B and Liu F 2011 J. Atmos. Sci. 68 2524
|
[12] |
Jia X, Chen L J, Ren F M and Li C Y 2011 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 28 521
|
[13] |
Li C Y and Zhou Y P 1994 Chin. J. Geophys. 37 213 (in Chinese)
|
[14] |
Chen B H, Li J P and Ding R Q 2006 Sci. China Ser. D 49 1111
|
[15] |
Ding R Q and Li J P 2007 Phys. Lett. A 364 396
|
[16] |
Ding R Q, Li J P and Ha K J 2008 J. Geophys. Res. 113 D24112
|
[17] |
Ding R Q, Li J P and Seo K H 2011 Mon. Wea. Rev. 139 2421
|
[18] |
Mu M 2000 Sci. China Ser. D 43 375
|
[19] |
Mu M, Duan W S, Xu H and Wang B 2006 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 6 992
|
[20] |
Zhou F F and Mu M 2012 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 29 705
|
[21] |
Yang S, Zhang Z, Kousky V E, Higgins R W, Yoo S H, Liang J and Fan Y 2008 J. Climate 21 3755
|
[22] |
Qian Z H, Hu J G, Feng G L and Cao Y Z 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 109203
|
[23] |
Horel J D and Wallace J M 1981 Mon. Wea. Rev. 109 813
|
[24] |
Blackmon M L, Geisler J E and Pitcher E J 1983 J. Atmos. Sci. 40 1410
|
[25] |
Chen W Y and Van den Dool H M 1996 J. Climate 10 1236
|
[26] |
Plaut G and Vautard R 1994 J. Atmos. Sci. 51 210
|
[27] |
Li C Y and Pan J 2006 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 23 925
|
[28] |
Wang X J, Zhi R, He W P and Gong Z Q 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 029201
|
[29] |
Gong Z Q, Wang X J, Zhi R and Feng A X 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 079201
|
[30] |
Blackmon M L, Lee Y H, Wallace J M and Hsu H H 1984 J. Atmos. Sci. 41 981
|
[31] |
Barnett T P and Preisendorfer R 1987 Mon. Wea. Rev. 115 1825
|
[32] |
DelSole T and Tippett M K 2008 J. Atmos. Sci. 65 1666
|
[33] |
Chou J F 2011 Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology 1 11 (in Chinese)
|
[34] |
Chou J F 2012 Chin. J. Geophys. 55 1433 (in Chinese)
|
[35] |
Wang K, Feng G L, Sun S P and Zheng Z H 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 109201 (in Chinese)
|
[36] |
Wang K, Feng G L, Sun S P and Zheng Z H 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 209201 (in Chinese)
|
[37] |
Zheng Z H, Huang J P, Feng G L and Chou J F 2012 Sci. China Earth Sci. 56 878
|
[38] |
Kalnay E and Coauthors 1996 Meteor. Soc. 77 437
|
[39] |
Li F and Wang H J 2012 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 29 441
|
No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
Altmetric
|
blogs
Facebook pages
Wikipedia page
Google+ users
|
Online attention
Altmetric calculates a score based on the online attention an article receives. Each coloured thread in the circle represents a different type of online attention. The number in the centre is the Altmetric score. Social media and mainstream news media are the main sources that calculate the score. Reference managers such as Mendeley are also tracked but do not contribute to the score. Older articles often score higher because they have had more time to get noticed. To account for this, Altmetric has included the context data for other articles of a similar age.
View more on Altmetrics
|
|
|