Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011

doi:10.1088/1674-1056/22/12/129202

Abstract In this paper we try to extract stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, similarity coefficient, and some other methods based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis daily data. The comparisons of the coefficient of variance of climatological background field and truth data in winter between 2010 and 2011 are made. The method of extracting stable components and climatological background field can be helpful to increase forecasting skill. The forecasting skill improvement of air temperature is better than geopotential height at 500 hPa. Moreover, this method improves the predictability better in the Pacific Ocean. In China, the forecast in winter in Northeast China is more uncertain than in the other parts.

Keywords: stable components climatological background coefficient of variance

Received: 29 March 2013
Revised: 10 May 2013
Accepted manuscript online:

PACS:

92.60.Wc

(Weather analysis and prediction)

Fund: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430204), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40930952 and 41105070), and the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902).

Corresponding Authors: Feng Guo-Lin
E-mail: fenggl@cma.gov.cn

Cite this article:

Wang Kuo (王阔), Feng Guo-Lin (封国林), Zeng Yu-Xing (曾宇星), Wang Xu-Jia (汪栩加) Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011 2013 Chin. Phys. B 22 129202

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Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011

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