Application of long-range correlation and multi-fractal analysis for the depiction of drought risk

doi:10.1088/1674-1056/25/1/019201

Abstract By using the multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis method, we analyze the nonlinear property of drought in southwestern China. The results indicate that the occurrence of drought in southwestern China is multi-fractal and long-range correlated, and these properties are indifferent to timescales. A power-law decay distribution well describes the return interval of drought events and the auto-correlation. Furthermore, a drought risk exponent based on the multi-fractal property and the long-range correlation is presented. This risk exponent can give useful information about whether the drought may or may not occur in future, and provide a guidance function for preventing disasters and reducing damage.

Keywords: multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis return intervals drought risk

Received: 09 July 2015
Revised: 21 August 2015
Accepted manuscript online:

PACS:

92.70.Aa

(Abrupt/rapid climate change)

Fund: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955901), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41305056, 41175084, and 41375069), and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant No. GYHY201506001).

Corresponding Authors: Wei Hou
E-mail: houwei@cma.gov.cn

Cite this article:

Wei Hou(侯威), Peng-Cheng Yan(颜鹏程), Shu-Ping Li(李淑萍), Gang Tu(涂刚), Jing-Guo Hu(胡经国) Application of long-range correlation and multi-fractal analysis for the depiction of drought risk 2016 Chin. Phys. B 25 019201

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Application of long-range correlation and multi-fractal analysis for the depiction of drought risk

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