GEOPHYSICS, ASTRONOMY, AND ASTROPHYSICS |
Prev
|
|
|
Application of long-range correlation and multi-fractal analysis for the depiction of drought risk |
Wei Hou(侯威)1, Peng-Cheng Yan(颜鹏程)2, Shu-Ping Li(李淑萍)2, Gang Tu(涂刚)3, Jing-Guo Hu(胡经国)4 |
1. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China; 2. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; 3. Jilin Meteorological Science Institute, Changchun 130062, China; 4. Department of Physics Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China |
|
|
Abstract By using the multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis method, we analyze the nonlinear property of drought in southwestern China. The results indicate that the occurrence of drought in southwestern China is multi-fractal and long-range correlated, and these properties are indifferent to timescales. A power-law decay distribution well describes the return interval of drought events and the auto-correlation. Furthermore, a drought risk exponent based on the multi-fractal property and the long-range correlation is presented. This risk exponent can give useful information about whether the drought may or may not occur in future, and provide a guidance function for preventing disasters and reducing damage.
|
Received: 09 July 2015
Revised: 21 August 2015
Accepted manuscript online:
|
PACS:
|
92.70.Aa
|
(Abrupt/rapid climate change)
|
|
Fund: Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955901), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41305056, 41175084, and 41375069), and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant No. GYHY201506001). |
Corresponding Authors:
Wei Hou
E-mail: houwei@cma.gov.cn
|
Cite this article:
Wei Hou(侯威), Peng-Cheng Yan(颜鹏程), Shu-Ping Li(李淑萍), Gang Tu(涂刚), Jing-Guo Hu(胡经国) Application of long-range correlation and multi-fractal analysis for the depiction of drought risk 2016 Chin. Phys. B 25 019201
|
[1] |
Huang J P, Minnis P and Yan H R 2010 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 6863
|
[2] |
Qiu J 2010 Nature 465 142
|
[3] |
Dai A 2012 Nat. Climate Change 3 52
|
[4] |
Barriopedro D, Gouveia C M, Trigo R M and Wang L 2012 J. Hydrometeor 13 1251
|
[5] |
Huang R H, Y Liu, L Wang and Wang L 2012 Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 36 443 (in Chinese)
|
[6] |
Duan H, Wang S and Feng J 2013 Journal of Arid Meteorology 31 633 (in Chinese)
|
[7] |
Sun J Q 2014 Chin. Sci.Bull. 59 3465
|
[8] |
Yang J, Gong D, Wang W, Hu M and Mao R 2012 Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 115 173
|
[9] |
Chen H P, Sun J Q and Chen X L 2013 Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett. 6 5
|
[10] |
Wang L, Chen W and Zhou W 2014 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 31 1035
|
[11] |
Wang W, Wang W J, Li J S, Wu H, Xu C and Liu T 2010 Procedia Environ. Sci. 2 1679
|
[12] |
Boagchev M I, Eichner J F and Bunde A 2007 Phys. Rev. Lett. 99 240601
|
[13] |
Boagchev M I and Bunde A 2008 Phys. Rev. E 78 036114
|
[14] |
Boagchev M I and Bunde A 2009 Phys. Rev. E 80 026131
|
[15] |
Bunde A, Eichner J F, Kantelhardt J W, Havlin S 2005 Phys. Rev. Lett. 94 048701
|
[16] |
Eichner J F, Kantelhardt J W, Bunde A and Havlin S 2007 Phys. Rev. E 75 011128
|
[17] |
Qian Z H, Hu J G and Cao Y Z 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 109203
|
[18] |
Zhao J H, Wang Q G, Zhi R and Feng G L 2012 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 70 302
|
[19] |
Kantelhardt J W, Bunde E K, Rybski D, Braun P, Bunde A and Havlin S 2006 J. Geophys. Res. 111 D01106
|
[20] |
McKee T B, Doesken N J and Kleist J 1993 Eighth Conf. on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc. pp. 179-184
|
[21] |
Gao H and Yang S 2009 J. Geophys. Res. 114 D24104
|
[22] |
Orlowsky B and Seneviratne S I 2013 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17 1765
|
[23] |
Kantelhardt J W, Zschiegner S A, Koscielny Bunde E, Bunde A, Havlin S and Stanley H E 2002 Physica A 361 87
|
[24] |
Hong Y F and Li Y H 2012 Fronters of Physics 3 261
|
[25] |
Lovejoy S and Schertzer D 2012 Nonlinear Proc. Geophys. 19 513
|
[26] |
Norouzzadeh P and Rahmani B 2006 Phys. A 367 328
|
[27] |
Ruan Y P and Zhou W X 2011 Phys. A 390 1646
|
[28] |
Lin M, Yan S X, Zhao G and Wang G 2013 Commun. Theor. Phys. 59 1
|
[29] |
Kantelhardt J W, Bauer A, Schumann A Y, Barthel P, Schneider R, Malik M and Schmidt G 2007 Chaos 17 015112
|
[30] |
Sun D Y, Zhang H B and Huang Q 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 209203 (in Chinese)
|
[31] |
Wang D L, Yu Z G and Anh V 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 80504
|
[32] |
Zhou Y, Leung Y and Yu Z G 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 90507
|
[33] |
Zhu S M, Yu Z G and Ahn V 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 10505
|
[34] |
Peng C K, Buldyrev S V and Havlin S 1994 Phys. Rev. E 49 1685
|
[35] |
Peters E E 2002 Fractal Market Analysis (Beijing: Economic Science Press) pp. 3-36 (in Chinese)
|
[36] |
Peters E E 1999 Chaos and Order in the Capital Markes (translated by Wang X D, 2nd Edn.) (Beijing: Economic Science Press) pp. 33-150 (in Chinese)
|
[37] |
Li T 2008 Multifractals: Theory and Some Application (Beijing: Beijing Jiaotong University) pp. 22-29 (in Chinese)
|
No Suggested Reading articles found! |
|
|
Viewed |
|
|
|
Full text
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract
|
|
|
|
|
Cited |
|
|
|
|
Altmetric
|
blogs
Facebook pages
Wikipedia page
Google+ users
|
Online attention
Altmetric calculates a score based on the online attention an article receives. Each coloured thread in the circle represents a different type of online attention. The number in the centre is the Altmetric score. Social media and mainstream news media are the main sources that calculate the score. Reference managers such as Mendeley are also tracked but do not contribute to the score. Older articles often score higher because they have had more time to get noticed. To account for this, Altmetric has included the context data for other articles of a similar age.
View more on Altmetrics
|
|
|