Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

doi:10.1088/1674-1056/20/12/128701

Abstract Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + -1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.

Keywords: influenza virus early-warning signals chaos game representation (CGR) walk model DNA sequence

Received: 14 May 2011
Revised: 25 July 2011
Accepted manuscript online:

PACS:	87.10.Vg	(Biological information)
	02.50.Fz	(Stochastic analysis)

Fund: Project supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. JUSRP21117) and the Program for Innovative Research Team of Jiangnan University (Grant No. 2008CX002).

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Ren Di(任迪) and Gao Jie(高洁) Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic 2011 Chin. Phys. B 20 128701

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Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

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