a State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; b Key Laboratory of National Meteorological Bureau Climate Research Center, Beijing 100081, China； Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China; c Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, Chinad Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
Abstract The dryness/wetness (DW) grade data of the Yangtze River delta are transformed in this paper into the temporal evolution of precipitation probability (PP), and its hierarchically distributive characters are revealed. Research results show that the precipitation of the Yangtze River delta displays the interannual, interdecadal, as well as more than a century quasi-periodic changes, and the periods are all significant at a confidence level of more than 0.05. In the DW grade series of 530 years, although the frequency of the small probability events (SPEs) of drought/flood in each area of the Yangtze River delta is different, the frequency of the SPEs triggered by the climatic background state is yet the same. This research result fully narrates the significant impact of the climatic evolution as a background state upon the occurrence of SPEs, which will play an instructional role in climatic prediction theory and in raising the accuracy of climatic prediction.
Received: 23 November 2004
Revised: 20 December 2004
Accepted manuscript online:
Fund: Project supported jointly by the National Key Program Development for Basic Research (Grant No. 2004CB418300) and the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40475027 and 40275031)
Cite this article:
Zeng Hong-Ling (曾红玲), Gao Xin-Quan (高新全), Zhang Wen (张文) Evolution characteristics of the precipitation in the Yangtze River delta based on the probability density 2005 Chinese Physics 14 1265
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