中国物理B ›› 2006, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (4): 882-889.doi: 10.1088/1009-1963/15/4/038

• • 上一篇    

Analogue correction method of errors and its application to numerical weather prediction

丑纪范1, 任宏利2, 李建平3, 高丽4   

  1. (1)College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; (2)Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China ; (3)State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; (4)State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China ;Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, C
  • 收稿日期:2005-08-17 修回日期:2005-11-01 出版日期:2006-04-20 发布日期:2006-04-20
  • 基金资助:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 40575036 and 40325015).

Analogue correction method of errors and its application to numerical weather prediction

Gao Li (高丽)ad, Ren Hong-Li (任宏利)bc, Li Jian-Ping (李建平)a, Chou Ji-Fan (丑纪范)c    

  1. a State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; b Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; c College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China; d Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
  • Received:2005-08-17 Revised:2005-11-01 Online:2006-04-20 Published:2006-04-20
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 40575036 and 40325015).

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摘要： In this paper, an analogue correction method of errors (ACE) based on a complicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numerical weather prediction (NWP). The analysis shows that the ACE can effectively reduce model errors by combining the statistical analogue method with the dynamical model together in order that the information of plenty of historical data is utilized in the current complicated NWP model. Furthermore, in the ACE, the differences of the similarities between different historical analogues and the current initial state are considered as the weights for estimating model errors. The results of daily, decad and monthly prediction experiments on a complicated T63 atmospheric model show that the performance of the ACE by correcting model errors based on the estimation of the errors of 4 historical analogue predictions is not only better than that of the scheme of only introducing the correction of the errors of every single analogue prediction, but is also better than that of the T63 model.

关键词: numerical weather prediction, analogue correction method of errors, reference state, analogue-dynamical model

Abstract: In this paper, an analogue correction method of errors (ACE) based on a complicated atmospheric model is further developed and applied to numerical weather prediction (NWP). The analysis shows that the ACE can effectively reduce model errors by combining the statistical analogue method with the dynamical model together in order that the information of plenty of historical data is utilized in the current complicated NWP model. Furthermore, in the ACE, the differences of the similarities between different historical analogues and the current initial state are considered as the weights for estimating model errors. The results of daily, decad and monthly prediction experiments on a complicated T63 atmospheric model show that the performance of the ACE by correcting model errors based on the estimation of the errors of 4 historical analogue predictions is not only better than that of the scheme of only introducing the correction of the errors of every single analogue prediction, but is also better than that of the T63 model.

Key words: numerical weather prediction, analogue correction method of errors, reference state, analogue-dynamical model

中图分类号:  (Weather analysis and prediction)

  • 92.60.Wc
92.60.Ry (Climatology, climate change and variability) 92.60.Xg (Stratosphere/troposphere interactions)