中国物理B ›› 2005, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (11): 2370-2378.doi: 10.1088/1009-1963/14/11/039

• • 上一篇    

Nonlinear evolution characteristics of the climate system on the interdecadal-centennial timescale

张文1, 高新全2   

  1. (1)Key Laboratory of National Meteorological Bureau Climate Research Center, Beijing 100081, China;Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China; (2)Key Laboratory of National Meteorological Bureau Climate Research Center, Beijing 100081, China;Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA),Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
  • 收稿日期:2005-03-01 修回日期:2005-05-17 出版日期:2005-11-20 发布日期:2005-11-20
  • 基金资助:
    Project supported jointly by the State Key Development Program for Basic Research (Grant No 2006CB400503) and the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant Nos 40275031 and 40325015).

Nonlinear evolution characteristics of the climate system on the interdecadal-centennial timescale

Gao Xin-Quan (高新全)ab, Zhang Wen (张文)ac    

  1. a Key Laboratory of National Meteorological Bureau Climate Research Center, Beijing 100081, Chinab Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; c Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China
  • Received:2005-03-01 Revised:2005-05-17 Online:2005-11-20 Published:2005-11-20
  • Supported by:
    Project supported jointly by the State Key Development Program for Basic Research (Grant No 2006CB400503) and the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant Nos 40275031 and 40325015).

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摘要： To better understand the physical mechanism of the climate change on interdecadal-centennial timescale, this paper focuses on analysing and modelling the evolution characteristics of the climate change. The method of wavelet transform is used to pick out the interdecadal timescale oscillations from long-term instrumental observations, natural proxy records, and modelling series. The modelling series derived from the most simplified nonlinear climatic model are used to identify whether modifications are concerned with some forcings such as the solar radiation on the climate system. The results show that two major oscillations exist in various observations and model series, namely the 20--30a and the 60--70a timescale respectively, and these quasi-periodicities are modulated with time. Further, modelling results suggest that the originations of these oscillations are not directly linked with the periodic variation of solar radiations such as the 1-year cycle, the 11-year cycle, and others, but possibly induced by the internal nonlinear effects of the climate system. It seems that the future study on the genesis of the climate change with interdecadal-centennial timescale should focus on the internal nonlinear dynamics in the climate system.

关键词: nonlinear, climate change, interdecadal-centennial timescale, modelling

Abstract: To better understand the physical mechanism of the climate change on interdecadal-centennial timescale, this paper focuses on analysing and modelling the evolution characteristics of the climate change. The method of wavelet transform is used to pick out the interdecadal timescale oscillations from long-term instrumental observations, natural proxy records, and modelling series. The modelling series derived from the most simplified nonlinear climatic model are used to identify whether modifications are concerned with some forcings such as the solar radiation on the climate system. The results show that two major oscillations exist in various observations and model series, namely the 20--30a and the 60--70a timescale respectively, and these quasi-periodicities are modulated with time. Further, modelling results suggest that the originations of these oscillations are not directly linked with the periodic variation of solar radiations such as the 1-year cycle, the 11-year cycle, and others, but possibly induced by the internal nonlinear effects of the climate system. It seems that the future study on the genesis of the climate change with interdecadal-centennial timescale should focus on the internal nonlinear dynamics in the climate system.

Key words: nonlinear, climate change, interdecadal-centennial timescale, modelling

中图分类号:  (Climatology, climate change and variability)

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