中国物理B ›› 2025, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (1): 18904-018904.doi: 10.1088/1674-1056/ad92ff

• • 上一篇    

Dynamic modeling and analysis of brucellosis on metapopulation network: Heilongjiang as cases

Xin Pei(裴鑫)1, Xuan-Li Wu(武绚丽)1, Pei Pei(裴沛)2, Ming-Tao Li(李明涛)1, Juan Zhang(张娟)3, and Xiu-Xiu Zhan(詹秀秀)4,†   

  1. 1 School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China;
    2 Department of Information Technology, Shanxi Professional College of Finance, Taiyuan 030008, China;
    3 Complex System Research Center, ShanXi University, Taiyuan 030006, China;
    4 Alibaba Complex Science Research Center, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China
  • 收稿日期:2024-09-29 修回日期:2024-11-04 接受日期:2024-11-15 发布日期:2024-12-12
  • 通讯作者: Xiu-Xiu Zhan E-mail:zhanxiuxiu@hznu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 12101443,12371493) and the Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province (Grant Nos. 20210302124260 and 202303021221024).

Dynamic modeling and analysis of brucellosis on metapopulation network: Heilongjiang as cases

Xin Pei(裴鑫)1, Xuan-Li Wu(武绚丽)1, Pei Pei(裴沛)2, Ming-Tao Li(李明涛)1, Juan Zhang(张娟)3, and Xiu-Xiu Zhan(詹秀秀)4,†   

  1. 1 School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China;
    2 Department of Information Technology, Shanxi Professional College of Finance, Taiyuan 030008, China;
    3 Complex System Research Center, ShanXi University, Taiyuan 030006, China;
    4 Alibaba Complex Science Research Center, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China
  • Received:2024-09-29 Revised:2024-11-04 Accepted:2024-11-15 Published:2024-12-12
  • Contact: Xiu-Xiu Zhan E-mail:zhanxiuxiu@hznu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 12101443,12371493) and the Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province (Grant Nos. 20210302124260 and 202303021221024).

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摘要： Livestock transportation is a key factor that contributes to the spatial spread of brucellosis. To analyze the impact of sheep transportation on brucellosis transmission, we develop a human-sheep coupled brucellosis model within a metapopulation network framework. Theoretically, we examine the positively invariant set, the basic reproduction number, the existence, uniqueness, and stability of disease-free equilibrium and the existence of the endemic equilibrium of the model. For practical application, using Heilongjiang province as a case study, we simulate brucellosis transmission across 12 cities based on data using three network types: the BA network, the ER network, and homogeneous mixing network. The simulation results indicate that the network's average degree plays a role in the spread of brucellosis. For BA and ER networks, the basic reproduction number and cumulative incidence of brucellosis stabilize when the network's average degree reaches 4 or 5. In contrast, sheep transport in a homogeneous mixing network accelerates the cross-regional spread of brucellosis, whereas transportation in a BA network helps to control it effectively. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the movement of sheep is not always detrimental to controlling the spread of brucellosis. For cities with smaller sheep populations, such as Shuangyashan and Qitaihe, increasing the transport of sheep outward amplifies the spatial spread of the disease. In contrast, in cities with larger sheep populations, such as Qiqihar, Daqing, and Suihua, moderate sheep outflow can help reduce the spread. In addition, cities with large livestock populations play a dominant role in the overall transmission dynamics, underscoring the need for stricter supervision in these areas.

关键词: brucellosis, metapopulation network, basic reproduction number, sheep transport

Abstract: Livestock transportation is a key factor that contributes to the spatial spread of brucellosis. To analyze the impact of sheep transportation on brucellosis transmission, we develop a human-sheep coupled brucellosis model within a metapopulation network framework. Theoretically, we examine the positively invariant set, the basic reproduction number, the existence, uniqueness, and stability of disease-free equilibrium and the existence of the endemic equilibrium of the model. For practical application, using Heilongjiang province as a case study, we simulate brucellosis transmission across 12 cities based on data using three network types: the BA network, the ER network, and homogeneous mixing network. The simulation results indicate that the network's average degree plays a role in the spread of brucellosis. For BA and ER networks, the basic reproduction number and cumulative incidence of brucellosis stabilize when the network's average degree reaches 4 or 5. In contrast, sheep transport in a homogeneous mixing network accelerates the cross-regional spread of brucellosis, whereas transportation in a BA network helps to control it effectively. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the movement of sheep is not always detrimental to controlling the spread of brucellosis. For cities with smaller sheep populations, such as Shuangyashan and Qitaihe, increasing the transport of sheep outward amplifies the spatial spread of the disease. In contrast, in cities with larger sheep populations, such as Qiqihar, Daqing, and Suihua, moderate sheep outflow can help reduce the spread. In addition, cities with large livestock populations play a dominant role in the overall transmission dynamics, underscoring the need for stricter supervision in these areas.

Key words: brucellosis, metapopulation network, basic reproduction number, sheep transport

中图分类号:  (Networks and genealogical trees)

  • 89.75.Hc
05.90.+m (Other topics in statistical physics, thermodynamics, and nonlinear dynamical systems) 92.20.jp (Ecosysystems, structure, dynamics and modeling) 02.70.-c (Computational techniques; simulations)