中国物理B ›› 2024, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 18904-18904.doi: 10.1088/1674-1056/acd7d1

• • 上一篇    

Analysis of radiation diffusion of COVID-19 driven by social attributes

Fuzhong Nian(年福忠)1,†, Xiaochen Yang(杨晓晨)1, and Yayong Shi(师亚勇)2   

  1. 1 Lanzhou University of Technology, School of Computer & Communication, Lanzhou 730050, China;
    2 University of Science and Technology Beijing, School of Computer & Communication Engineering, Beijing 100083, China
  • 收稿日期:2023-03-06 修回日期:2023-04-23 接受日期:2023-05-23 出版日期:2023-12-13 发布日期:2023-12-25
  • 通讯作者: Fuzhong Nian E-mail:gdnfz@lut.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 62266030 and 61863025), International S & T Cooperation Projects of Gansu province (Grant No. 144WCGA166), and Longyuan Young Innovation Talents and the Doctoral Foundation of LUT.

Analysis of radiation diffusion of COVID-19 driven by social attributes

Fuzhong Nian(年福忠)1,†, Xiaochen Yang(杨晓晨)1, and Yayong Shi(师亚勇)2   

  1. 1 Lanzhou University of Technology, School of Computer & Communication, Lanzhou 730050, China;
    2 University of Science and Technology Beijing, School of Computer & Communication Engineering, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2023-03-06 Revised:2023-04-23 Accepted:2023-05-23 Online:2023-12-13 Published:2023-12-25
  • Contact: Fuzhong Nian E-mail:gdnfz@lut.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 62266030 and 61863025), International S & T Cooperation Projects of Gansu province (Grant No. 144WCGA166), and Longyuan Young Innovation Talents and the Doctoral Foundation of LUT.

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摘要： This paper first estimated the infectious capacity of COVID-19 based on the time series evolution data of confirmed cases in multiple countries. Then, a method to infer the cross-regional spread speed of COVID-19 was introduced in this paper, which took the gross domestic product (GDP) of each region as one of the factors that affect the spread speed of COVID-19 and studied the relationship between the GDP and the infection density of each region (mainland China, the United States, and EU countries). In addition, the geographic distance between regions was also considered in this method and the effect of geographic distance on the spread speed of COVID-19 was studied. Studies have shown that the probability of mutual infection of these two regions decreases with increasing geographic distance. Therefore, this paper proposed an epidemic disease spread index based on GDP and geographic distance to quantify the spread speed of COVID-19 in a region. The analysis results showed a strong correlation between the epidemic disease spread index in a region and the number of confirmed cases. This finding provides reasonable suggestions for the control of epidemics. Strengthening the control measures in regions with higher epidemic disease spread index can effectively control the spread of epidemics.

关键词: COVID-19 basic reproduction number, gross domestic product (GDP), geographic distance, cross-regional spread

Abstract: This paper first estimated the infectious capacity of COVID-19 based on the time series evolution data of confirmed cases in multiple countries. Then, a method to infer the cross-regional spread speed of COVID-19 was introduced in this paper, which took the gross domestic product (GDP) of each region as one of the factors that affect the spread speed of COVID-19 and studied the relationship between the GDP and the infection density of each region (mainland China, the United States, and EU countries). In addition, the geographic distance between regions was also considered in this method and the effect of geographic distance on the spread speed of COVID-19 was studied. Studies have shown that the probability of mutual infection of these two regions decreases with increasing geographic distance. Therefore, this paper proposed an epidemic disease spread index based on GDP and geographic distance to quantify the spread speed of COVID-19 in a region. The analysis results showed a strong correlation between the epidemic disease spread index in a region and the number of confirmed cases. This finding provides reasonable suggestions for the control of epidemics. Strengthening the control measures in regions with higher epidemic disease spread index can effectively control the spread of epidemics.

Key words: COVID-19 basic reproduction number, gross domestic product (GDP), geographic distance, cross-regional spread

中图分类号:  (Interdisciplinary applications of physics)

  • 89.20.-a
89.70.-a (Information and communication theory) 89.75.-k (Complex systems)