Dynamics and control strategies of infectious disease under different scenarios on hierarchical geographical networks

doi:10.1088/1674-1056/ab53ce

中国物理B ›› 2019, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (12): 128901-128901.doi: 10.1088/1674-1056/ab53ce

• INTERDISCIPLINARY PHYSICS AND RELATED AREAS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY • 上一篇

Dynamics and control strategies of infectious disease under different scenarios on hierarchical geographical networks

Xun Ma(马勋), Ya-Peng Cui(崔亚鹏), Xiao-Li Yan(闫小丽), Shun-Jiang Ni(倪顺江), Shi-Fei Shen(申世飞)

1 Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2 Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
3 Beijing Key Laboratory of City Integrated Emergency Response Science, Beijing 100084, China

收稿日期:2019-07-20 修回日期:2019-09-26 出版日期:2019-12-05 发布日期:2019-12-05
通讯作者: Shun-Jiang Ni E-mail:sjni@tsinghua.edu.cn
基金资助:
Project supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFF0301005), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71673161 and 71790613), and the Collaborative Innovation Center of Public Safety, China.

Dynamics and control strategies of infectious disease under different scenarios on hierarchical geographical networks

Xun Ma(马勋)^1,2,3, Ya-Peng Cui(崔亚鹏)^1,2,3, Xiao-Li Yan(闫小丽)^1,2,3, Shun-Jiang Ni(倪顺江)^1,2,3, Shi-Fei Shen(申世飞)^1,2,3

1 Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2 Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
3 Beijing Key Laboratory of City Integrated Emergency Response Science, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2019-07-20 Revised:2019-09-26 Online:2019-12-05 Published:2019-12-05
Contact: Shun-Jiang Ni E-mail:sjni@tsinghua.edu.cn
Supported by:
Project supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFF0301005), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71673161 and 71790613), and the Collaborative Innovation Center of Public Safety, China.

摘要/Abstract

摘要： Human settlements are embedded in traffic networks with hierarchical structures. In order to understand the spreading mechanism of infectious diseases and deploy control measures, the susceptible-infected-removed spreading process is studied with agents moving globally on the hierarchical geographic network, taking into account agents' preference for node layers and memory of initial nodes. We investigate the spreading behavior in the case of global infection under different scenarios, including different directions of human flow, different locations of infection source, and different moving behaviors of agents between layers. Based on the above-mentioned analysis, we propose screening strategies based on layer rank and moving distance, and compare their effects on delaying epidemic spreading. We find that in the case of global infection, infection spreads faster in high layers than in low layers, and early infection in high layers and moving to high layers both accelerate epidemic spreading. Travels of high-layer and low-layer residents have different effects on accelerating epidemic spreading, and moving between high and low layers increases the peak value of new infected cases more than moving in the same layer or between adjacent layers. Infection in intermediate nodes enhances the effects of moving of low-layer residents more than the moving of high-layer residents on accelerating epidemic spreading. For screening measures, improving the success rate is more effective on delaying epidemic spreading than expanding the screening range. With the same number of moves screened, screening moves into or out of high-layer nodes combined with screening moves between subnetworks has better results than only screening moves into or out of high-layer nodes, and screening long-distance moves has the worst results when the screening range is small, but it achieves the best results in reducing the peak value of new infected cases when the screening range is large enough. This study probes into the spreading process and control measures under different scenarios on the hierarchical geographical network, and is of great significance for epidemic control in the real world.

关键词: disease spreading, hierarchical geographical networks, screening strategies

Abstract: Human settlements are embedded in traffic networks with hierarchical structures. In order to understand the spreading mechanism of infectious diseases and deploy control measures, the susceptible-infected-removed spreading process is studied with agents moving globally on the hierarchical geographic network, taking into account agents' preference for node layers and memory of initial nodes. We investigate the spreading behavior in the case of global infection under different scenarios, including different directions of human flow, different locations of infection source, and different moving behaviors of agents between layers. Based on the above-mentioned analysis, we propose screening strategies based on layer rank and moving distance, and compare their effects on delaying epidemic spreading. We find that in the case of global infection, infection spreads faster in high layers than in low layers, and early infection in high layers and moving to high layers both accelerate epidemic spreading. Travels of high-layer and low-layer residents have different effects on accelerating epidemic spreading, and moving between high and low layers increases the peak value of new infected cases more than moving in the same layer or between adjacent layers. Infection in intermediate nodes enhances the effects of moving of low-layer residents more than the moving of high-layer residents on accelerating epidemic spreading. For screening measures, improving the success rate is more effective on delaying epidemic spreading than expanding the screening range. With the same number of moves screened, screening moves into or out of high-layer nodes combined with screening moves between subnetworks has better results than only screening moves into or out of high-layer nodes, and screening long-distance moves has the worst results when the screening range is small, but it achieves the best results in reducing the peak value of new infected cases when the screening range is large enough. This study probes into the spreading process and control measures under different scenarios on the hierarchical geographical network, and is of great significance for epidemic control in the real world.

Key words: disease spreading, hierarchical geographical networks, screening strategies

中图分类号: (Networks and genealogical trees)

89.75.Hc

马勋, 崔亚鹏, 闫小丽, 倪顺江, 申世飞. Dynamics and control strategies of infectious disease under different scenarios on hierarchical geographical networks[J]. 中国物理B, 2019, 28(12): 128901-128901.

Xun Ma(马勋), Ya-Peng Cui(崔亚鹏), Xiao-Li Yan(闫小丽), Shun-Jiang Ni(倪顺江), Shi-Fei Shen(申世飞). Dynamics and control strategies of infectious disease under different scenarios on hierarchical geographical networks[J]. Chin. Phys. B, 2019, 28(12): 128901-128901.

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Dynamics and control strategies of infectious disease under different scenarios on hierarchical geographical networks

Dynamics and control strategies of infectious disease under different scenarios on hierarchical geographical networks

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