中国物理B ›› 2016, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (1): 19201-019201.doi: 10.1088/1674-1056/25/1/019201

• GEOPHYSICS, ASTRONOMY, AND ASTROPHYSICS • 上一篇    

Application of long-range correlation and multi-fractal analysis for the depiction of drought risk

Wei Hou(侯威), Peng-Cheng Yan(颜鹏程), Shu-Ping Li(李淑萍), Gang Tu(涂刚), Jing-Guo Hu(胡经国)   

  1. 1. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;
    2. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    3. Jilin Meteorological Science Institute, Changchun 130062, China;
    4. Department of Physics Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China
  • 收稿日期:2015-07-09 修回日期:2015-08-21 出版日期:2016-01-05 发布日期:2016-01-05
  • 通讯作者: Wei Hou E-mail:houwei@cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:
    Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955901), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41305056, 41175084, and 41375069), and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant No. GYHY201506001).

Application of long-range correlation and multi-fractal analysis for the depiction of drought risk

Wei Hou(侯威)1, Peng-Cheng Yan(颜鹏程)2, Shu-Ping Li(李淑萍)2, Gang Tu(涂刚)3, Jing-Guo Hu(胡经国)4   

  1. 1. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China;
    2. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    3. Jilin Meteorological Science Institute, Changchun 130062, China;
    4. Department of Physics Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China
  • Received:2015-07-09 Revised:2015-08-21 Online:2016-01-05 Published:2016-01-05
  • Contact: Wei Hou E-mail:houwei@cma.gov.cn
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955901), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41305056, 41175084, and 41375069), and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant No. GYHY201506001).

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摘要： By using the multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis method, we analyze the nonlinear property of drought in southwestern China. The results indicate that the occurrence of drought in southwestern China is multi-fractal and long-range correlated, and these properties are indifferent to timescales. A power-law decay distribution well describes the return interval of drought events and the auto-correlation. Furthermore, a drought risk exponent based on the multi-fractal property and the long-range correlation is presented. This risk exponent can give useful information about whether the drought may or may not occur in future, and provide a guidance function for preventing disasters and reducing damage.

关键词: multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis, return intervals, drought risk

Abstract: By using the multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis method, we analyze the nonlinear property of drought in southwestern China. The results indicate that the occurrence of drought in southwestern China is multi-fractal and long-range correlated, and these properties are indifferent to timescales. A power-law decay distribution well describes the return interval of drought events and the auto-correlation. Furthermore, a drought risk exponent based on the multi-fractal property and the long-range correlation is presented. This risk exponent can give useful information about whether the drought may or may not occur in future, and provide a guidance function for preventing disasters and reducing damage.

Key words: multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis, return intervals, drought risk

中图分类号:  (Abrupt/rapid climate change)

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