关键词: extreme temperature, most probable temperature, climate state

Abstract: Based on the skewed function, the most probable temperature is defined and the spatiotemporal distributions of the frequencies and strengths of extreme temperature events in different climate states over China are investigated, where the climate states are referred to as State I, State II and State III, i.e., the daily minimum temperature records of 1961-1990, 1971-2000, and 1981-2009. The results show that in space the frequency of high temperature events in summer decreases clearly in the lower and middle reaches of the Yellow River in State I and that low temperature events decrease in northern China in State II. In the present state, the frequency of high temperature events increases significantly in most areas over China except the north east, while the frequency of low temperature events decreases mainly in north China and the regions between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. The distributions of frequencies and strengths of extreme temperature events are consistent in space. The analysis of time evolution of extreme events shows that the occurrence of high temperature events become higher with the change in state, while that of low temperature events decreases. High temperature events are becoming stronger as well and deserve to be paid special attention.

Key words: extreme temperature, most probable temperature, climate state