中国物理B ›› 2014, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (5): 59202-059202.doi: 10.1088/1674-1056/23/5/059202

• GEOPHYSICS, ASTRONOMY, AND ASTROPHYSICS • 上一篇    

Predicting extreme rainfall over eastern Asia by using complex networks

何苏红a, 封泰晨b, 龚艳春a, 黄雁华a, 吴成国a, 龚志强c d   

  1. a Institute of Science, PLA University of Science, Nanjing 211101, China;
    b Atmosphere and Science College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    c Laboratory for Climate Monitoring and Diagnosing, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    d Laboratory for Climate Diagnosis of National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • 收稿日期:2013-08-16 修回日期:2013-11-26 出版日期:2014-05-15 发布日期:2014-05-15
  • 基金资助:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41205040), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955203 and 2012CB955902), and the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest, China (Grant No. GYHY201306021).

Predicting extreme rainfall over eastern Asia by using complex networks

He Su-Hong (何苏红)a, Feng Tai-Chen (封泰晨)b, Gong Yan-Chun (龚艳春)a, Huang Yan-Hua (黄雁华)a, Wu Cheng-Guo (吴成国)a, Gong Zhi-Qiang (龚志强)c d   

  1. a Institute of Science, PLA University of Science, Nanjing 211101, China;
    b Atmosphere and Science College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    c Laboratory for Climate Monitoring and Diagnosing, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    d Laboratory for Climate Diagnosis of National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2013-08-16 Revised:2013-11-26 Online:2014-05-15 Published:2014-05-15
  • Contact: Gong Zhi-Qiang E-mail:gzq0929@126.com
  • About author:92.60.Wc
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41205040), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955203 and 2012CB955902), and the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest, China (Grant No. GYHY201306021).

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摘要： A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971-2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization (ES). Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay (1 ≤ n ≤ 10). The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay (2 ≤ n ≤ 10). The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon (EASM) or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years.

关键词: prediction, extreme rainfall, synchronization, complex networks

Abstract: A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971-2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization (ES). Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay (1 ≤ n ≤ 10). The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay (2 ≤ n ≤ 10). The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon (EASM) or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years.

Key words: prediction, extreme rainfall, synchronization, complex networks

中图分类号:  (Weather analysis and prediction)

  • 92.60.Wc