Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011

doi:10.1088/1674-1056/22/12/129202

Chin. Phys. B ›› 2013, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (12): 129202-129202.doi: 10.1088/1674-1056/22/12/129202

• GEOPHYSICS, ASTRONOMY, AND ASTROPHYSICS • 上一篇下一篇

Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011

王阔^a, 封国林^b, 曾宇星^a, 汪栩加^a

a College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
b Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

收稿日期:2013-03-29 修回日期:2013-05-10 出版日期:2013-10-25 发布日期:2013-10-25
基金资助:
Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430204), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40930952 and 41105070), and the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902).

Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011

Wang Kuo (王阔)^a, Feng Guo-Lin (封国林)^b, Zeng Yu-Xing (曾宇星)^a, Wang Xu-Jia (汪栩加)^a

a College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
b Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2013-03-29 Revised:2013-05-10 Online:2013-10-25 Published:2013-10-25
Contact: Feng Guo-Lin E-mail:fenggl@cma.gov.cn
Supported by:
Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430204), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40930952 and 41105070), and the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： In this paper we try to extract stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, similarity coefficient, and some other methods based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis daily data. The comparisons of the coefficient of variance of climatological background field and truth data in winter between 2010 and 2011 are made. The method of extracting stable components and climatological background field can be helpful to increase forecasting skill. The forecasting skill improvement of air temperature is better than geopotential height at 500 hPa. Moreover, this method improves the predictability better in the Pacific Ocean. In China, the forecast in winter in Northeast China is more uncertain than in the other parts.

关键词: stable components, climatological background, coefficient of variance

Abstract: In this paper we try to extract stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days by using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, similarity coefficient, and some other methods based on the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis daily data. The comparisons of the coefficient of variance of climatological background field and truth data in winter between 2010 and 2011 are made. The method of extracting stable components and climatological background field can be helpful to increase forecasting skill. The forecasting skill improvement of air temperature is better than geopotential height at 500 hPa. Moreover, this method improves the predictability better in the Pacific Ocean. In China, the forecast in winter in Northeast China is more uncertain than in the other parts.

Key words: stable components, climatological background, coefficient of variance

中图分类号: (Weather analysis and prediction)

92.60.Wc

王阔, 封国林, 曾宇星, 汪栩加. Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011[J]. Chin. Phys. B, 2013, 22(12): 129202-129202.

Wang Kuo (王阔), Feng Guo-Lin (封国林), Zeng Yu-Xing (曾宇星), Wang Xu-Jia (汪栩加). Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011[J]. Chin. Phys. B, 2013, 22(12): 129202-129202.

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Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011

Analysis of stable components in the extended-range forecast for the coming 10–30 days in winter 2010 and 2011

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