中国物理B ›› 2008, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (9): 3241-3246.doi: 10.1088/1674-1056/17/9/016

• GENERAL • 上一篇    下一篇

GEKF, GUKF and GGPF based prediction of chaotic time-series with additive and multiplicative noises

伍雪冬, 宋执环   

  1. State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology, Department of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China
  • 收稿日期:2007-11-05 修回日期:2007-12-01 出版日期:2008-09-08 发布日期:2008-09-08
  • 基金资助:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 60774067) and the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province of China (Grant No 2006J0017).

GEKF, GUKF and GGPF based prediction of chaotic time-series with additive and multiplicative noises

Wu Xue-Dong(伍雪冬) and Song Zhi-Huan(宋执环)   

  1. State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology, Department of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China
  • Received:2007-11-05 Revised:2007-12-01 Online:2008-09-08 Published:2008-09-08
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 60774067) and the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province of China (Grant No 2006J0017).

摘要: On the assumption that random interruptions in the observation process are modelled by a sequence of independent Bernoulli random variables, this paper generalize the extended Kalman filtering (EKF), the unscented Kalman filtering (UKF) and the Gaussian particle filtering (GPF) to the case in which there is a positive probability that the observation in each time consists of noise alone and does not contain the chaotic signal (These generalized novel algorithms are referred to as GEKF, GUKF and GGPF correspondingly in this paper). Using weights and network output of neural networks to constitute state equation and observation equation for chaotic time-series prediction to obtain the linear system state transition equation with continuous update scheme in an online fashion, and the prediction results of chaotic time series represented by the predicted observation value, these proposed novel algorithms are applied to the prediction of Mackey--Glass time-series with additive and multiplicative noises. Simulation results prove that the GGPF provides a relatively better prediction performance in comparison with GEKF and GUKF.

Abstract: On the assumption that random interruptions in the observation process are modelled by a sequence of independent Bernoulli random variables, this paper generalize the extended Kalman filtering (EKF), the unscented Kalman filtering (UKF) and the Gaussian particle filtering (GPF) to the case in which there is a positive probability that the observation in each time consists of noise alone and does not contain the chaotic signal (These generalized novel algorithms are referred to as GEKF, GUKF and GGPF correspondingly in this paper). Using weights and network output of neural networks to constitute state equation and observation equation for chaotic time-series prediction to obtain the linear system state transition equation with continuous update scheme in an online fashion, and the prediction results of chaotic time series represented by the predicted observation value, these proposed novel algorithms are applied to the prediction of Mackey--Glass time-series with additive and multiplicative noises. Simulation results prove that the GGPF provides a relatively better prediction performance in comparison with GEKF and GUKF.

Key words: additive and multiplicative noises, different generalized nonlinear filtering, chaotic time-series prediction, neural network approximation

中图分类号:  (Time series analysis)

  • 05.45.Tp
05.40.Ca (Noise) 07.05.Mh (Neural networks, fuzzy logic, artificial intelligence)