中国物理B ›› 2005, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (6): 1265-1271.doi: 10.1088/1009-1963/14/6/037

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Evolution characteristics of the precipitation in the Yangtze River delta based on the probability density

高新全1, 张文2, 曾红玲3   

  1. (1)Key Laboratory of National Meteorological Bureau Climate Research Center, Beijing 100081, China; (2)Key Laboratory of National Meteorological Bureau Climate Research Center, Beijing 100081, China； Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China; (3)State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China；Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10
  • 收稿日期:2004-11-23 修回日期:2004-12-20 出版日期:2005-05-27 发布日期:2005-05-27
  • 基金资助:
    Project supported jointly by the National Key Program Development for Basic Research (Grant No. 2004CB418300) and the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40475027 and 40275031)

Evolution characteristics of the precipitation in the Yangtze River delta based on the probability density

Zeng Hong-Ling (曾红玲)ad, Gao Xin-Quan (高新全)b, Zhang Wen (张文)bc    

  1. a State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; b Key Laboratory of National Meteorological Bureau Climate Research Center, Beijing 100081, China； Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China; c Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, Chinad Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
  • Received:2004-11-23 Revised:2004-12-20 Online:2005-05-27 Published:2005-05-27
  • Supported by:
    Project supported jointly by the National Key Program Development for Basic Research (Grant No. 2004CB418300) and the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40475027 and 40275031)

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摘要： The dryness/wetness (DW) grade data of the Yangtze River delta are transformed in this paper into the temporal evolution of precipitation probability (PP), and its hierarchically distributive characters are revealed. Research results show that the precipitation of the Yangtze River delta displays the interannual, interdecadal, as well as more than a century quasi-periodic changes, and the periods are all significant at a confidence level of more than 0.05. In the DW grade series of 530 years, although the frequency of the small probability events (SPEs) of drought/flood in each area of the Yangtze River delta is different, the frequency of the SPEs triggered by the climatic background state is yet the same. This research result fully narrates the significant impact of the climatic evolution as a background state upon the occurrence of SPEs, which will play an instructional role in climatic prediction theory and in raising the accuracy of climatic prediction.

关键词: drought/flood, small probability events, Yangtze River delta, probability evolution

Abstract: The dryness/wetness (DW) grade data of the Yangtze River delta are transformed in this paper into the temporal evolution of precipitation probability (PP), and its hierarchically distributive characters are revealed. Research results show that the precipitation of the Yangtze River delta displays the interannual, interdecadal, as well as more than a century quasi-periodic changes, and the periods are all significant at a confidence level of more than 0.05. In the DW grade series of 530 years, although the frequency of the small probability events (SPEs) of drought/flood in each area of the Yangtze River delta is different, the frequency of the SPEs triggered by the climatic background state is yet the same. This research result fully narrates the significant impact of the climatic evolution as a background state upon the occurrence of SPEs, which will play an instructional role in climatic prediction theory and in raising the accuracy of climatic prediction.

Key words: drought/flood, small probability events, Yangtze River delta, probability evolution

中图分类号:  (Precipitation)

  • 92.40.Ea
92.40.Qk (Surface water, water resources) 92.60.Iv (Paleoclimatology) 92.40.Zg (Hydrometeorology, hydroclimatology) 93.30.Db (Asia)