Epidemic threshold influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions in residential university environments

doi:10.1088/1674-1056/ace2b0

中国物理B ›› 2024, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (2): 28707-028707.doi: 10.1088/1674-1056/ace2b0

Epidemic threshold influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions in residential university environments

Zechao Lu(卢泽超)¹, Shengmei Zhao(赵生妹)¹, Huazhong Shu(束华中)², and Long-Yan Gong(巩龙延)^2,†

1 Institute of Signal Processing and Transmission, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210003, China;
2 College of Science, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210003, China

收稿日期:2023-03-31 修回日期:2023-06-05 接受日期:2023-06-29 出版日期:2024-01-16 发布日期:2024-01-16
通讯作者: Long-Yan Gong E-mail:lygong@njupt.edu.cn
基金资助:
Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61871234).

Epidemic threshold influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions in residential university environments

Zechao Lu(卢泽超)¹, Shengmei Zhao(赵生妹)¹, Huazhong Shu(束华中)², and Long-Yan Gong(巩龙延)^2,†

1 Institute of Signal Processing and Transmission, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210003, China;
2 College of Science, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210003, China

Received:2023-03-31 Revised:2023-06-05 Accepted:2023-06-29 Online:2024-01-16 Published:2024-01-16
Contact: Long-Yan Gong E-mail:lygong@njupt.edu.cn
Supported by:
Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61871234).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge. In residential universities, students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule, and mainly pack into classrooms, dining halls and dorms. They move from one place to another. To simulate such environments, we propose an agent-based susceptible-infected-recovered model with time-varying heterogeneous contact networks. In close environments, maintaining physical distancing is the most widely recommended and encouraged non-pharmaceutical intervention. It can be easily realized by using larger classrooms, adopting staggered dining hours, decreasing the number of students per dorm and so on. Their real-world influence remains uncertain. With numerical simulations, we obtain epidemic thresholds. The effect of such countermeasures on reducing the number of disease cases is also quantitatively evaluated.

关键词: epidemic threshold, susceptible-infected-recovered model, non-pharmaceutical interventions, time-varying heterogeneous contact networks

Abstract: The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge. In residential universities, students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule, and mainly pack into classrooms, dining halls and dorms. They move from one place to another. To simulate such environments, we propose an agent-based susceptible-infected-recovered model with time-varying heterogeneous contact networks. In close environments, maintaining physical distancing is the most widely recommended and encouraged non-pharmaceutical intervention. It can be easily realized by using larger classrooms, adopting staggered dining hours, decreasing the number of students per dorm and so on. Their real-world influence remains uncertain. With numerical simulations, we obtain epidemic thresholds. The effect of such countermeasures on reducing the number of disease cases is also quantitatively evaluated.

Key words: epidemic threshold, susceptible-infected-recovered model, non-pharmaceutical interventions, time-varying heterogeneous contact networks

中图分类号: (Diseases)

87.19.X-

89.75.Hc (Networks and genealogical trees) 87.23.Ge (Dynamics of social systems) 05.10.-a (Computational methods in statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics)

Zechao Lu(卢泽超), Shengmei Zhao(赵生妹), Huazhong Shu(束华中), and Long-Yan Gong(巩龙延). Epidemic threshold influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions in residential university environments[J]. 中国物理B, 2024, 33(2): 28707-028707.

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Epidemic threshold influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions in residential university environments

Epidemic threshold influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions in residential university environments

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