Extra-seasonal prediction of summer 500-hPa height field in the area of cold vortices over East Asia with a dynamical-statistical method

doi:10.1088/1674-1056/24/5/059202

中国物理B ›› 2015, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (5): 59202-059202.doi: 10.1088/1674-1056/24/5/059202

• GEOPHYSICS, ASTRONOMY, AND ASTROPHYSICS • 上一篇下一篇

Extra-seasonal prediction of summer 500-hPa height field in the area of cold vortices over East Asia with a dynamical-statistical method

赵俊虎^a, 杨柳^{a b}, 侯威^a, 刘刚^{a c}, 曾宇星^{a c}

a National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
b Department of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China;
c College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

收稿日期:2014-08-15 修回日期:2015-01-09 出版日期:2015-05-05 发布日期:2015-05-05
基金资助:
Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375078), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955902 and 2013CB430204), and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant No. GYHY201306021).

Extra-seasonal prediction of summer 500-hPa height field in the area of cold vortices over East Asia with a dynamical-statistical method

Zhao Jun-Hu (赵俊虎)^a, Yang Liu (杨柳)^{a b}, Hou Wei (侯威)^a, Liu Gang (刘刚)^{a c}, Zeng Yu-Xing (曾宇星)^{a c}

a National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
b Department of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225002, China;
c College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

Received:2014-08-15 Revised:2015-01-09 Online:2015-05-05 Published:2015-05-05
Contact: Zhao Jun-Hu E-mail:zhaojh@cma.gov.cn
About author:92.60.Ry
Supported by:
Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375078), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955902 and 2013CB430204), and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant No. GYHY201306021).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

The cold vortex is a major high impact weather system in northeast China during the warm season, its frequent activities also affect the short-term climate throughout eastern China. How to objectively and quantitatively predict the intensity trend of the cold vortex is an urgent and difficult problem for current short-term climate prediction. Based on the dynamical-statistical combining principle, the predicted results of the Beijing Climate Center's global atmosphere–ocean coupled model and rich historical data are used for dynamic-statistical extra-seasonal prediction testing and actual prediction of the summer 500-hPa geopotential height over the cold vortex activity area. The results show that this method can significantly reduce the model's prediction error over the cold vortex activity area, and improve the prediction skills. Furthermore, the results of the sensitivity test reveal that the predicted results are highly dependent on the quantity of similar factors and the number of similar years.

关键词: cold vortex, dynamical-statistical combining principle, extra-seasonal prediction

Abstract:

Key words: cold vortex, dynamical-statistical combining principle, extra-seasonal prediction

中图分类号: (Climatology, climate change and variability)

92.60.Ry

赵俊虎, 杨柳, 侯威, 刘刚, 曾宇星. Extra-seasonal prediction of summer 500-hPa height field in the area of cold vortices over East Asia with a dynamical-statistical method[J]. 中国物理B, 2015, 24(5): 59202-059202.

Zhao Jun-Hu (赵俊虎), Yang Liu (杨柳), Hou Wei (侯威), Liu Gang (刘刚), Zeng Yu-Xing (曾宇星). Extra-seasonal prediction of summer 500-hPa height field in the area of cold vortices over East Asia with a dynamical-statistical method[J]. Chin. Phys. B, 2015, 24(5): 59202-059202.

参考文献 36

[1]	Zhang C, Zhang Q, Wang Y and Liang X 2008 Meteorol .Atmos. Phys. 100 291
[2]	Hu K X, Lu R Y and Wang D H 2010 Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 106 37
[3]	Tao S Y 1980 Heavy Rain in China (Beijing: Science Press) p. 224 (in Chinese)
[4]	Zheng X Y, Zhang Y Z and Bai R H 1992 Heavy Rain in Dongbei (Beijing: Meteorological Press) p. 219 (in Chinese)
[5]	Sun L, Zheng X Y and Wang Q 1994 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 5 297 (in Chinese)
[6]	Sun L, An G, Lian Y, Shen B Z and Tang X L 2000 Acta Meteor. Sin. 55 704 (in Chinese)
[7]	Zhao S X and Sun J H 2007 Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 96 159
[8]	Sun L 1997 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 21 297 (in Chinese)
[9]	Yang H W, Feng G L, Shen B Z and Zhi R 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 487 (in Chinese)
[10]	He J H, Wu Z W, Jiang Z H, Miao C S and Han G R 2007 Chin. Sci. Bull. 52 671
[11]	Kang I S, Lee J Y and Park C K 2004 J. Clim. 17 834
[12]	Mo R P and Straus D M 2002 Mon. Wea. Rev. 130 2167
[13]	Chou J F 1974 Scientia Sinica 6 635 (in Chinese)
[14]	Chou J F 1986 Plateau Meteorology 5 367 (in Chinese)
[15]	Huang J P and Wang S W 1991 Sci. Chin. D 2 216 (in Chinese)
[16]	Ren H L and Chou J F 2005 Acta Meteor. Sin. 63 988 (in Chinese)
[17]	Ren H L and Chou J F 2007 Science China Earth Sciences 50 1589
[18]	Zheng Z H, Ren H L and Huang J P 2009 Acta Phys. Sin. 58 7359 (in Chinese)
[19]	Wang Q G, Feng G L, Zheng Z H and Zhi R 2011 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 35 287 (in Chinese)
[20]	Xiong K G, Zhao J H, Feng G L, Huang J P and Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 61 149204 (in Chinese)
[21]	Yang J, Wang Q G, Zhi R and Feng G L 2011 Acta Phys. Sin. 60 029204 (in Chinese)
[22]	Zhao J H, Feng G L, Wang Q G, Yang J and Gong Z Q 2011 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 35 1069 (in Chinese)
[23]	Yang J, Feng G L Zhao J H and Zhang Z S 2012 Acta Meteor. Sin. 70 1032 (in Chinese)
[24]	Yang J, Zhao J H, Zheng Z H, Xiong K G and Shen B Z 2012 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 36 11 (in Chinese)
[25]	Zhao J H, Yang J, Feng G L, Zhang S X 2013 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 24 43 (in Chinese)
[26]	Xiong K G, Zhao J H, Feng G L, Huang J P and Hu J G 2012 Acta Phys. Sin. 69 149204 (in Chinese)
[27]	Yang J, Gong Z Q, Zhao J H and Xu X Z 2014 Acta Phys. Sin. 63 149202 (in Chinese)
[28]	Feng G L, Zhao J H, Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Zheng Z H, Yang J and Xiong K G 2013 Quart. J. Appl. Meteorol. 24 656 (in Chinese)
[29]	Zhao J H, Yang J, Gong Z Q and Zhi R 2013 Acta Phys. Sin. 62 099206 (in Chinese)
[30]	Ding Y H, Li Q Q, Li W J, Luo Y, Zhang P Q, Zhang Z Q, Shi X L, Liu Y M and Wang L N 2004 Acta Meteor. Sin. 62 598 (in Chinese)
[31]	Wang S W 1984 Adv. Atmos. Sci. 1 7
[32]	Shen B Z, Liu S, Lian Y, Feng G L, Li S F and Gong Z Q 2011 Acta Meteor. Sin. 69 320 (in Chinese)
[33]	Feng G L, Hou W, Zhi R, Yang P, Zhang D Q, Gong Z Q and Wan S Q 2012 Detection, Diagnosis and Predictability Research of Extreme Climate Events (Beijing: Science Press) pp. 1-345 (in Chinese)
[34]	Gong Z Q, Zhao J H and Feng G L 2013 Acta Phys.Sin. 62 099205 (in Chinese)
[35]	Qian Z H, Hu J G, Feng G L and Cao Y Z 2012 Chin. Phys. B 21 109203
[36]	Feng G L, Gong Z Q, Zhi R and Zhang D Q 2008 Chin. Phys. B 17 2745

Extra-seasonal prediction of summer 500-hPa height field in the area of cold vortices over East Asia with a dynamical-statistical method

Extra-seasonal prediction of summer 500-hPa height field in the area of cold vortices over East Asia with a dynamical-statistical method

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献 36

相关文章 1

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0