Epidemic threshold influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions in residential university environments

The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge. In residential universities, students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule, and mainly pack into classrooms, dining halls and dorms. They move from one place to another. To simulate such environments, we propose an agent-based susceptible–infected–recovered model with time-varying heterogeneous contact networks. In close environments, maintaining physical distancing is the most widely recommended and encouraged non-pharmaceutical intervention. It can be easily realized by using larger classrooms, adopting staggered dining hours, decreasing the number of students per dorm and so on. Their real-world influence remains uncertain. With numerical simulations, we obtain epidemic thresholds. The effect of such countermeasures on reducing the number of disease cases is also quantitatively evaluated.