中国物理B ›› 2008, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (7): 2745-2752.doi: 10.1088/1674-1056/17/7/065

• • 上一篇    

Analysis of precipitation characteristics of South and North China based on the power-law tail exponents

封国林1, 章大全2, 龚志强3, 支蓉3   

  1. (1)Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China;Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; (2)Department of Physics, Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225009, China; (3)Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China ^ c)Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administrat
  • 收稿日期:2007-11-11 修回日期:2008-01-15 出版日期:2008-07-09 发布日期:2008-07-09
  • 基金资助:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 40675044) and the State Key development program for Basic Research (Grant No 2006CB400503).

Analysis of precipitation characteristics of South and North China based on the power-law tail exponents

Feng Guo-Lin(封国林)a)b), Gong Zhi-Qiang(龚志强)b)c))†,Zhi Rong(支蓉)b)c), and Zhang Da-Quan(章大全)a)   

  1. a Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China; b Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; c Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological AdministratChina Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2007-11-11 Revised:2008-01-15 Online:2008-07-09 Published:2008-07-09
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 40675044) and the State Key development program for Basic Research (Grant No 2006CB400503).

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摘要： Precipitation sequence is a typical nonlinear and chaotic observational series, and studies on precipitation forecasts are restricted to the use of traditional linear statistical methods, especially when analysing the regional characteristics of precipitation. In the context of 20 stations' daily precipitation series (from 1956 to 2000) in South China (SC) and North China (NC), we divide each precipitation series into many self-stationary segments by using the heuristic segmentation algorithm (briefly BG algorithm). For each station's precipitation series, we calculate the exponent of power-law tail (EPT) of the cumulative probability distribution of segments with a length larger than $l$ for precipitation and temperature series. Our results show that the power-law decay of the cumulative probability distribution of stationary segments might be a common attribution for precipitation and other nonstationary time series; the EPT somewhat indicates the precipitation duration and its spatial distribution that might be different from area to area. The EPT in NC is larger than in SC; Meanwhile, EPT might be another effective way to study the abrupt changes in nonlinear and nonstationary time series.

关键词: the power-law exponents, precipitation, durative, abrupt precipitation change

Abstract: Precipitation sequence is a typical nonlinear and chaotic observational series, and studies on precipitation forecasts are restricted to the use of traditional linear statistical methods, especially when analysing the regional characteristics of precipitation. In the context of 20 stations' daily precipitation series (from 1956 to 2000) in South China (SC) and North China (NC), we divide each precipitation series into many self-stationary segments by using the heuristic segmentation algorithm (briefly BG algorithm). For each station's precipitation series, we calculate the exponent of power-law tail (EPT) of the cumulative probability distribution of segments with a length larger than $l$ for precipitation and temperature series. Our results show that the power-law decay of the cumulative probability distribution of stationary segments might be a common attribution for precipitation and other nonstationary time series; the EPT somewhat indicates the precipitation duration and its spatial distribution that might be different from area to area. The EPT in NC is larger than in SC; Meanwhile, EPT might be another effective way to study the abrupt changes in nonlinear and nonstationary time series.

Key words: the power-law exponents, precipitation, durative, abrupt precipitation change

中图分类号:  (Water in the atmosphere)

  • 92.60.Jq
02.50.-r (Probability theory, stochastic processes, and statistics) 92.60.Ry (Climatology, climate change and variability) 93.30.Db (Asia)