中国物理B ›› 2004, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (9): 1582-1587.doi: 10.1088/1009-1963/13/9/038

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On temporal evolution of precipitation probability of the Yangtze River delta in the last 50 years

封国林1, 李建平2, 董文杰3   

  1. (1)Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; (2)Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; (3)National Climate Center of China, Beijing 100081, China
  • 收稿日期:2004-03-15 修回日期:2004-06-14 出版日期:2004-06-21 发布日期:2005-06-21
  • 基金资助:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 40275031, 40325015 and 40231006).

On temporal evolution of precipitation probability of the Yangtze River delta in the last 50 years

Feng Guo-Lin (封国林)ab, Dong Wen-Jie (董文杰)c, Li Jing-Ping (李建平)b   

  1. a Department of Physics, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; b Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; c National Climate Center of China, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2004-03-15 Revised:2004-06-14 Online:2004-06-21 Published:2005-06-21
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 40275031, 40325015 and 40231006).

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摘要： The monthly precipitation observational data of the Yangtze River delta are transformed into the temporal evolution of precipitation probability (PP), and its hierarchically distributive characters have been revealed in this paper. Research results show that precipitation of the Yangtze River delta displays the interannual and interdecadal characters and the periods are all significant at a confidence level of more than 0.05. The interdecadal is an important time scale, because it is on the one hand a disturbance of long period changes, and on the other hand it is also the background for interannual change. The interdecadal and 3－7y oscillations have different motion laws in the data-based mechanism self-memory model (DAMSM). Meanwhile, this paper also provides a new train of thought for dynamic modelling. Because this method only involves a certain length of data series, it can be used in many fields, such as meteorology, hydrology, seismology, and economy etc, and thus has a bright perspective in practical applications.

关键词: nonlinear time series, probability density, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), short-range climate changes

Abstract: The monthly precipitation observational data of the Yangtze River delta are transformed into the temporal evolution of precipitation probability (PP), and its hierarchically distributive characters have been revealed in this paper. Research results show that precipitation of the Yangtze River delta displays the interannual and interdecadal characters and the periods are all significant at a confidence level of more than 0.05. The interdecadal is an important time scale, because it is on the one hand a disturbance of long period changes, and on the other hand it is also the background for interannual change. The interdecadal and 3－7y oscillations have different motion laws in the data-based mechanism self-memory model (DAMSM). Meanwhile, this paper also provides a new train of thought for dynamic modelling. Because this method only involves a certain length of data series, it can be used in many fields, such as meteorology, hydrology, seismology, and economy etc, and thus has a bright perspective in practical applications.

Key words: nonlinear time series, probability density, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), short-range climate changes

中图分类号:  (Precipitation)

  • 92.40.Ea
05.45.Tp (Time series analysis) 92.60.Bh (General circulation) 92.60.Ry (Climatology, climate change and variability)