| GEOPHYSICS, ASTRONOMY, AND ASTROPHYSICS |
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Predicting extreme rainfall over eastern Asia by using complex networks |
| He Su-Hong (何苏红)a, Feng Tai-Chen (封泰晨)b, Gong Yan-Chun (龚艳春)a, Huang Yan-Hua (黄雁华)a, Wu Cheng-Guo (吴成国)a, Gong Zhi-Qiang (龚志强)c d |
a Institute of Science, PLA University of Science, Nanjing 211101, China;
b Atmosphere and Science College, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
c Laboratory for Climate Monitoring and Diagnosing, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
d Laboratory for Climate Diagnosis of National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China |
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Abstract A climate network of extreme rainfall over eastern Asia is constructed for the period of 1971-2000, employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation called event synchronization (ES). Using this network, we predict the extreme rainfall for several cases without delay and with n-day delay (1 ≤ n ≤ 10). The prediction accuracy can reach 58% without delay, 21% with 1-day delay, and 12% with n-day delay (2 ≤ n ≤ 10). The results reveal that the prediction accuracy is low in years of a weak east Asia summer monsoon (EASM) or 1 year later and high in years of a strong EASM or 1 year later. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is higher due to the many more links that represent correlations between different grid points and a higher extreme rainfall rate during strong EASM years.
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Received: 16 August 2013
Revised: 26 November 2013
Accepted manuscript online:
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PACS:
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92.60.Wc
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(Weather analysis and prediction)
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| Fund: Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41205040), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955203 and 2012CB955902), and the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest, China (Grant No. GYHY201306021). |
Corresponding Authors:
Gong Zhi-Qiang
E-mail: gzq0929@126.com
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| About author: 92.60.Wc |
Cite this article:
He Su-Hong (何苏红), Feng Tai-Chen (封泰晨), Gong Yan-Chun (龚艳春), Huang Yan-Hua (黄雁华), Wu Cheng-Guo (吴成国), Gong Zhi-Qiang (龚志强) Predicting extreme rainfall over eastern Asia by using complex networks 2014 Chin. Phys. B 23 059202
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